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Thursday, April 27, 2006

Insight on Indian consumers

The May 1, 2006 issue of BusinessWorld has an insightful article on Indian consumers, written by Rama Bijapurkar based on a report published by Hansa Research. Trust me, it's worth going through the hassle of free-registration to read this article. In this study, consumer segments are defined according to what people consume/own, as opposed to how much they earn. The efficacy of this methodology is best summarized in Rama Bijapurkar's own words -

I have said ad nauseum, and beg leave to say again, that consumption data is like maternity — a certainty; while income data is like paternity — often a matter of opinion.
Income-based segmentation suffers from systematic under-reporting and typically misses out the black money component. In a market like India where the majority are employed in the unorganized sector, the resulting errors can be significant. Without further ado, I reproduce 3 pictures from this article, that speak a lot more than 3000 words from yours truly. The first two pictures go together and lay out various consumer segments, classified according to assets they own and products they use. Here's the user's manual to decipher what they mean (I couldnt understand the Sanskritised segment names myself):
The basis is a construct called HPI (Household Potential — or affluence — Index), which calculates for each household a score based on the consumption or non-consumption of a basket of 50 FMCG and durable products. A higher score is awarded for a less penetrated one (e.g. air conditioner or ketchup) and a lower score to a widely penetrated one (e.g. colour TV or toothpaste). Households with similar HPI scores have been grouped together to create eight consumer classes. Each has been further described in terms of specifics of ownership
I find this data fascinating -
  • If you are reading this on a home PC, you probably belong to the top 1% of Indian households (2 million out of 200 million)
  • 18-20 million households in India have 'motorized transport' - wonder if this defines the Indian middle-class?
  • You can make out the pecking-order of consumer durables - ACs & flat TVs at the very top, followed by 4-wheelers/PCs, washing machines, 2-wheelers/phones/refrigerators
  • The data is unclear on the distinction between mobile phones and fixed line phones. However, if you juxtapose the current mobile phone base of 90 million against the pyramid, the scale achieved in a mere 5 years is staggering (Remember that the pyramid shows # of households - each household has ~5 people). I would guess that the top 3 segments account for the bulk of the postpaid consumers (20-25% of total) and have more than one cellphone per household. After you deduct these, you still need to account for over 60 million prepaid connections. This means that cellphones have actually penetrated the 'Sangharshi' segment (2nd from bottom)! To put this in perspective, half of this segment does NOT use toothpaste (before the ignorant cast aspersions on their personal hygiene, they do use tooth powder)! Kudos to our cellphone operators.
Those who are interested could dissect this data in many ways & come up with even more amazing inferences. I am off to buy the entire "Guide to Indian Markets 2006" report.

93 Comments:

At 11:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

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At 11:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mobile phones penetration is more to do with technology, ease of use, cost and our social system that is totally based on human networking. We love to talk right?, typical Indian talks first and then listens :-). Americans listen first, process the data and then talk about it (with exceptions, granted).

Anyway, I wonder where Gold purchases fall under. I am one of those who think Indians block so much money in the form of gold which can be better used.

Thoughts???

 
At 10:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi! Anand,

I have some doubts about the veracity of this data. E.g. in personal computers, the table suggests, the total number of households that have PCs is 0.7*1+0.5*1 = 1.2 million.

This surely can't be true!!
I have read in multiple reports that the installed PC base in Indian homes is at least 5 million.

Besides as a strategy consultant, I have done some work in this space and I would tend to think that the total number of households with PCs in India is significantly greater than 1.2 million.

 
At 1:41 PM, Anonymous Startups.in said...

Interesting data here. Probably should try and get a copy of "Guide to Indian Markets 2006" myself to dig more into it.

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At 3:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Anand,
That was a really good article.Since you work in BVP I was wondering if you could guide me in a problem.
Now a days we are seeing that a lot of PE firms are getting listed(KKR $5Bn IPO,etc).Now I was wondering what would be the valuation driver for a fund if it wants to get listed.The only logical multiple seems the Price/Book Value of comparable companies.
Now say suppose BVP wants to get listed can it value itself based on comparable P/E multiples of its daughter companies, weighted on the basis of the sector-wise investment and that weighted P/E ratio being subject to a discount due to lack of liquidity that a PE firm faces.

Can you let me know your thoughts on the same..?

 
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At 9:34 PM, Anonymous Kamla said...

Anand:

Informative post. I am a bit skeptical about the numbers and stats...especially on mobile phones. In the past month I spoke to a bunch of entrepreneurs and analysts and the response has been pretty interesting.

Hope you share some of your insights about the Indian retail segment after you read the report. It would be great to get your distilled input on this subject.

Kamla

 
At 11:44 AM, Blogger Krish said...

Hello Anonymous,

On your valuation driver for Public listed PE firms.

It doesn't normally suit the PE firms to go public because ;

(a) the asking level of transparency and thro disclosures under the SOX Act / SEC guidelines (SEBI in India ) is way beyond the comfort levels of PE players.

(b) Limited partners normally assign a time horizon for exit which the public simply can't.

(c) some of them may question the due diligence process followed by the fund, justification for high management fees and carry, the specific reason why milestones were extended for portfolio companies etc...

( Now who wants to rock the boat ? )

PE players would then assume the mantle of portfolio managers or wealth managers which is not the intention. Private Equity is essentially investment thro negotiated process.

Listed PE firms ( IL&FS Investment Management Ltd. only PE from India in the listed space ) don't command a premium valuation in the market - because their performance is based on the expertise and skill of the General Partner / Principal who has no way but to rely on a string of not so scrupulous intermediaries ( Fund Manager / Brokerage house ) because of pressure of performance and lure of a quick carry before the fund expires its mandate.

P/BV cannot be the choice since BV ( Net Worth / no.of shares outstanding ) does not factor in the future prospects of any business - and future, has always been a matter of individual perception.

Nonetheless if there are any overarching reasons to get listed, it could only be the valuation guidelines prescribed by SEBI for unlisted entities - which will definitely fall short of expectations of all the stakeholders.

 
At 11:03 AM, Blogger Vishal Sharma said...

Good informative Post Anand.

 
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Interesting post Anand. Enjoyed reading it.

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