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Thursday, April 27, 2006

Insight on Indian consumers

The May 1, 2006 issue of BusinessWorld has an insightful article on Indian consumers, written by Rama Bijapurkar based on a report published by Hansa Research. Trust me, it's worth going through the hassle of free-registration to read this article. In this study, consumer segments are defined according to what people consume/own, as opposed to how much they earn. The efficacy of this methodology is best summarized in Rama Bijapurkar's own words -

I have said ad nauseum, and beg leave to say again, that consumption data is like maternity — a certainty; while income data is like paternity — often a matter of opinion.
Income-based segmentation suffers from systematic under-reporting and typically misses out the black money component. In a market like India where the majority are employed in the unorganized sector, the resulting errors can be significant. Without further ado, I reproduce 3 pictures from this article, that speak a lot more than 3000 words from yours truly. The first two pictures go together and lay out various consumer segments, classified according to assets they own and products they use. Here's the user's manual to decipher what they mean (I couldnt understand the Sanskritised segment names myself):
The basis is a construct called HPI (Household Potential — or affluence — Index), which calculates for each household a score based on the consumption or non-consumption of a basket of 50 FMCG and durable products. A higher score is awarded for a less penetrated one (e.g. air conditioner or ketchup) and a lower score to a widely penetrated one (e.g. colour TV or toothpaste). Households with similar HPI scores have been grouped together to create eight consumer classes. Each has been further described in terms of specifics of ownership
I find this data fascinating -
  • If you are reading this on a home PC, you probably belong to the top 1% of Indian households (2 million out of 200 million)
  • 18-20 million households in India have 'motorized transport' - wonder if this defines the Indian middle-class?
  • You can make out the pecking-order of consumer durables - ACs & flat TVs at the very top, followed by 4-wheelers/PCs, washing machines, 2-wheelers/phones/refrigerators
  • The data is unclear on the distinction between mobile phones and fixed line phones. However, if you juxtapose the current mobile phone base of 90 million against the pyramid, the scale achieved in a mere 5 years is staggering (Remember that the pyramid shows # of households - each household has ~5 people). I would guess that the top 3 segments account for the bulk of the postpaid consumers (20-25% of total) and have more than one cellphone per household. After you deduct these, you still need to account for over 60 million prepaid connections. This means that cellphones have actually penetrated the 'Sangharshi' segment (2nd from bottom)! To put this in perspective, half of this segment does NOT use toothpaste (before the ignorant cast aspersions on their personal hygiene, they do use tooth powder)! Kudos to our cellphone operators.
Those who are interested could dissect this data in many ways & come up with even more amazing inferences. I am off to buy the entire "Guide to Indian Markets 2006" report.


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At 11:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mobile phones penetration is more to do with technology, ease of use, cost and our social system that is totally based on human networking. We love to talk right?, typical Indian talks first and then listens :-). Americans listen first, process the data and then talk about it (with exceptions, granted).

Anyway, I wonder where Gold purchases fall under. I am one of those who think Indians block so much money in the form of gold which can be better used.


At 10:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi! Anand,

I have some doubts about the veracity of this data. E.g. in personal computers, the table suggests, the total number of households that have PCs is 0.7*1+0.5*1 = 1.2 million.

This surely can't be true!!
I have read in multiple reports that the installed PC base in Indian homes is at least 5 million.

Besides as a strategy consultant, I have done some work in this space and I would tend to think that the total number of households with PCs in India is significantly greater than 1.2 million.

At 1:41 PM, Anonymous said...

Interesting data here. Probably should try and get a copy of "Guide to Indian Markets 2006" myself to dig more into it.

NagB /at/

At 3:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Anand,
That was a really good article.Since you work in BVP I was wondering if you could guide me in a problem.
Now a days we are seeing that a lot of PE firms are getting listed(KKR $5Bn IPO,etc).Now I was wondering what would be the valuation driver for a fund if it wants to get listed.The only logical multiple seems the Price/Book Value of comparable companies.
Now say suppose BVP wants to get listed can it value itself based on comparable P/E multiples of its daughter companies, weighted on the basis of the sector-wise investment and that weighted P/E ratio being subject to a discount due to lack of liquidity that a PE firm faces.

Can you let me know your thoughts on the same..?

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At 9:34 PM, Anonymous Kamla said...


Informative post. I am a bit skeptical about the numbers and stats...especially on mobile phones. In the past month I spoke to a bunch of entrepreneurs and analysts and the response has been pretty interesting.

Hope you share some of your insights about the Indian retail segment after you read the report. It would be great to get your distilled input on this subject.


At 11:44 AM, Blogger Krish said...

Hello Anonymous,

On your valuation driver for Public listed PE firms.

It doesn't normally suit the PE firms to go public because ;

(a) the asking level of transparency and thro disclosures under the SOX Act / SEC guidelines (SEBI in India ) is way beyond the comfort levels of PE players.

(b) Limited partners normally assign a time horizon for exit which the public simply can't.

(c) some of them may question the due diligence process followed by the fund, justification for high management fees and carry, the specific reason why milestones were extended for portfolio companies etc...

( Now who wants to rock the boat ? )

PE players would then assume the mantle of portfolio managers or wealth managers which is not the intention. Private Equity is essentially investment thro negotiated process.

Listed PE firms ( IL&FS Investment Management Ltd. only PE from India in the listed space ) don't command a premium valuation in the market - because their performance is based on the expertise and skill of the General Partner / Principal who has no way but to rely on a string of not so scrupulous intermediaries ( Fund Manager / Brokerage house ) because of pressure of performance and lure of a quick carry before the fund expires its mandate.

P/BV cannot be the choice since BV ( Net Worth / no.of shares outstanding ) does not factor in the future prospects of any business - and future, has always been a matter of individual perception.

Nonetheless if there are any overarching reasons to get listed, it could only be the valuation guidelines prescribed by SEBI for unlisted entities - which will definitely fall short of expectations of all the stakeholders.

At 11:03 AM, Blogger Vishal Sharma said...

Good informative Post Anand.

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Interesting post Anand. Enjoyed reading it.


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Investments in limited partnership interests (which is the dominant legal form of private equity investments) are referred to as Orange County equity investment which should earn a premium over traditional securities, such as stocks and bonds. Once invested, it is very difficult to gain access to your money as it is locked-up in long-term investments which can last for as long as twelve years. Distributions are made only as investments are converted to cash; limited partners typically have no right to demand that sales be made.

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At 5:27 PM, Blogger khaled ali said...

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At 8:40 PM, Blogger عبده العمراوى said...

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At 11:28 PM, Anonymous شركة عالم الابداع said...

شركة تنظيف مجالس وكنب بالمنطقة الشرقية
شركة عالم الابداع لتنظيف الشقق والفلل والموكيت والمجالس والعمائر والمحلات بالدمام والخبر والقطيف والجبيل والظهران والاحساء
تقدم شركة غسيل كنب ومجالس بالظهران افضل خدمات تنظيف الكنب لكي يصبح الكنب ذو رقة واناقة فلا بد من اختيار انواع الستائرالفخمة الرقيقة
والتي تتحمل اشعة الشمس وتضيف جمالا علي المكان وفي بعض الاحيان يصعب فك الستائر وتركيبها مره اخري وخصوصا التي تكون مكونة
من اكثر من طبقة فالاتربة تتراكم عليها و تؤثر علي بريقها ولونها بمرور الوقت ولكن فريق العمل المتخصص يعتمد في تنظيف المجالس والكنب والستائر بالظهران
علي احدث معدات البخارالمصممة لمثل هذه الستائر المعلقة مع استخدام تقنية البخار الجاف وخاصة عند وجود الخرز علي الستائر او التطريزات او المواد البوليستر
فلهذه الحالة يستعمل فريقنا المتميز البخار الجاف ليكون هو الحل الامثل لانواع هذه الستائر والخرز والالوان ويقومون بتعقيمها وتطهيرها بشكل امن استخدام بعض المنظفات
التي لاتحتوي علي مبيضات او مواد حارقة التي لا تؤثر علي الالوان ومصرح بها وعدم تاثيرها اطلاقا علي الصحة وازالة اي بقع او رائحة كريهه ويتم تعطير الستائر والمجالس
والكنب من تشكيلة معطرات مصرح بها
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At 4:33 PM, Blogger Elhoout Company said...

"It's about the game, it's about the team, it's about us doing our job," Pagano said Monday. "We know how great a team we're going to play. You've got a Hall of Fame coach, a Hall of Fame quarterback and a bunch of great players on both sides of the ball. It's going to be a tall order." شركة نقل اثاث بالمدينة المنورة شركة تتنظيف بالمدينة المنورة in Indianapolis as longtime friends Wayne, Redding and Bruce Arians and new friends such as Robert Mathis, Andrew Luck شركة تنظيف فلل بالمدينة المنورة Grigson and team owner Jim Irsay rallied the team. After returning home, the treatments continued for two more months.
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At 4:35 PM, Blogger Elhoout Company said...

شركة تنظيف بابها تنظيف بابها لان التنظيف والنظافة لا يمكن الاستغناء عنة في حياتنا اليومية ولا يوجد مكان لا يحتاج الي التنظيف طالما نحن ما لنا علي قيد الحياه ، وكما نعلم فان النظافة من الايمان و ليس مجرد التنظيف العادي فقط ما نحتاجة لاننا في بعض الاحيان نحتاج الي شركة متخصصة في مجال النظافة العامة و تنظيف الاماكن باساليب وطرق متطورة و متخصصة من حيث الماكينات والمعدات المستخدمة مثل ماكينات الجلي وتلميع السيراميك لحاجة مثل هذة الماكينات الي اشخاص مدربين لديهم القدرة علي العمل علي هذة الادوات وطريقة استخدامها ،
عملية تنظيف المنازل لم تعود مشكلتك الكبيرة بعد الأن نحن فى شركة الشرق الاوسط لخدمات تنظيف المنازل بابها تحتوى على تقوم شركة تنظيف منازل بابهابالتعامل مع ذات المساحات الكبيرة والشاسعة بكل سيولة ويسر نظراً لريادتنا فى مجال المنازل ب . عمال وفنيين يعملون تحت كافة الظروف الممكنة فلا تهتم إن كانت المنزل الخاص بك جديدة وتحتاج لإزالة بقايا الدهانات فنحن نمتلك فريق مدرب ولديه كافة المنظفات المطلوبة للقيام بتلك العملية.
فنحن على دراية بكل كبيرة وصغيرة ونستطيع التعامل معها بشكل مميز حيث ,لدنيا خبراء فى الحفاظ على الزجاج بعد عملية التنظيف ونقوم بعمليات جلي البلاط وجعله يلمع وبراق بالإضافة لتنظيف المنزل من الخارج لتحصل على حديقة راقية بمظهر يسر الناظرين.
ما تمتلك من مميزات وخبرات في مجال التنظيف بخميس مشيط
حيث ان شركة الشرق الاوسط تمتلك الالات والمعدات الحديثة التي من خلالها تستطيع شركة الشرق الاوسط شركة تنظيف بخميس مشيطبافضل صورة ممكنه واعلي درجة نظافة وياتي من اهم عوامل التنظيف ونتميز بوجود فرع لنا فى مدينة محايل عسير شركة تنظيف بمحايل عسير
عامل مواد التنظيف والمطهرات التي تستخدم في عملية التنظيف حيث اننا شركة الشرق الاوسط نعمل دائماً على استخدام المواد التي تساعدنا على انتاج فاعلية تنظيف عالية الجودة حتي نتمكن من تنظيف المنزل باعلي جودة كما اننا نستخدم المطهرات التي يحتجها شركة تنظيف منازل بخميس مشيطومنها الديتول وغيراها من مطهرات وكذالك نقوم باتباع احدث الوسائل والتقنيات الحديثة والمخصصة لاعمال تنظيف المنزل والعمل على تدريت وتطوير العمالة التي تقوم باستخدام الالات الحديثة والمتطورة التي تظهر بمجال تنظيف المنزل نعمل على تنظيف منزلك من الداخل ومن الخارج لاننا متخصصون فى هذا المجال منذ اكثر من 12 عام لاننا شركة تنظيف منازل بحائلالاقوى دائما والابقى فى هذا المجال وهو تنظيف كل ما يلزم الشقه او البيت من ارضيات وحوائط واسقف وواجهة المنزل وايضا نجيد غسل السجاد والموكيت والستائر والمجالس والركن والمفروشات بكل انواعها ونجيد ايضا التخصص فى مجال تنظيف المطابخ والحمامات واطقم الحمام والبورسلين والرخام والارضيات والدرج وكل ما يخص المنزل ونعمل ايضا فى مجال تنظيف الفنادق والمطاعم والاستراحات والمسابح والمكاتب وجميع الاثاث ونحن افضل شركة تنظيف بحائل تقدم الخدمات المنزليه

At 4:35 PM, Blogger Elhoout Company said...

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كما أن الشركة شركة الشرق الاوسط شركة مكافحه حشرات بحائل تعمل دائما لتقديم ما هو أفضل للعميل والسعي الدائم وراء التقدم والوصول إلي أحدث الأساليب والمعدات والمبيدات الحشرية حتى تقوم بأفضل النتائج بدون وجود أي أثار جانبية كما جميعا نعلم ما هي الحشرات ومدي ضررها ووجودها فجميعنا نعلم أن الحشرات مختلفة الأنواع من الطائر شركة تنظيف بالظائف ومنها الزاحف وهما ما يشملوا النمل والصراصير وبق الفراش والسحالي والبراصي والعناكب الضارة وغيرها بالكثير من الحشرات المختلفة التي تتواجد في بعض المنازل شركة مكافحة الربيه بجازان تنتشر في الكثير من الأماكن وتعتبر من الحشرات الشائعة لذلك تعمل شركة مكافحة حشرات بنجران علي الاهتمام بهذا الموضوع من كل الجوانب وذلك للتخلص بشكل سليم وبدقة من جميع الحشرات دون أي أضرار أو أي من المشاكل نبين لكم مثال من الحشرات وكيفية التخلص من الفئران وهي الطريقة التي توضحها شركة الشرق الاوسط شركة نقل اثاث بالطائف

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