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Sunday, January 22, 2006

India internet - still waiting

I attended Digital Summit 2006, a conference on the Indian Internet sector, organized by IAMAI. Technically, the conference also covers wireless, but most of the discussions focused on Internet. Here are my observations, after discounting for the natural self-promotion that occurs at such conferences:

  • India internet: not yet. Growth is decent (subs, e-commerce, ad spend), but no hockey-stick effect yet. Given the small base, evolutionary growth isn’t good enough to quickly reach significant scale. We are not seeing the equivalent of cellphones circa-2003, where the industry exploded (triggered by CDMA entry, free incoming and a $10 entry cost to go mobile). A base of 4-5 million Indian homes have PCs, with new PC sales to households hovering slightly north of 1 million/year. To put this in context, the PC base is roughly comparable to the base of passenger cars (remember, the average car costs 10x that of a PC) and the number of households with an annual income of over Rs. 0.5 million. PCs are yet to penetrate the Rs. 0.2 to 0.5 million annual household income segment, that forms the mainstay of the Indian middle class (this segment has roughly 14 million households).
  • Take all numbers with bags of salt (including the ones I quote!). There are assorted estimates for subscribers, e-commerce, broadband etc (I heard a range from 10-70 mn subs, with the median at an official-sounding 38.5 mn). Rather than get into estimates, let me say that we need to apply a quality-filter (e.g. not just talk about internet subs, but address hours used, frequency, non-email usage, quality of connection etc). I didn’t see any estimates for subscribers for whom Internet is a habit, with reasonable usage beyond email. I put this at 5 mn, give or take.
  • Online travel leads the way, especially Railways & Air Deccan. Indian Railways has been selling Rs. 30 crore of tickets monthly on the Internet (over 200,000 transactions monthly). On a relative scale, this is still small – 2% of total revenue, near-10% of upper-class (a/c) tickets (if you assume online bookings are predominantly for these classes). Air Deccan uses its internet-based reservation engine for all bookings and has a run rate of Rs. 1000 cr/year. While all transactions use the internet, most of them are intermediated (travel agent, Webworld, call centre, booking office). They didn’t disclose share of direct internet bookings.
  • Cyber café’s are the primary mode of access. 60-70% of internet users access the net at cyber cafés. I see this as analogous to the PCO-era in our telecom sector. Think about the sea change in phone usage now that 70+ million people carry cellphones and don’t have to rely on a local PCO to talk to other people. The same will happen to the net only when it moves from the café to the home.
  • Disagreement on definition of broadband. I was disheartened to see India’s internet pioneers say ’56 kbps is good enough for Indian customers’. Seemed kinda regressive to me! I know services need to be priced low in India to reach scale, but that doesn’t mean customers will put up with crappy service. While we pay a few cents/minute for mobile calls, the service is still world-class.
  • Bottlenecks – affordable good-quality broadband, payment mechanisms and (perceived) security risk (for commerce). Surprisingly, high PC prices weren’t mentioned as much (I’ll talk about this later).
At $25-30 million ad revenues and $150-200 million e-commerce revenues (gross), the India internet market is clearly a small market today. There is also no doubt on the direction and that this would eventually become significant. The main question is ‘how soon’? I don’t have the answer, but here are my views on some of the relevant factors and on what needs to change for us to get there.

Let me start with my definition for ‘significant scale’. My medium-term target would be 30 million households having high quality (over 256 kbps), affordable ( under Rs. 500/month for PC-EMI + net access without download limitations), reliable internet access at home. I deliberately pick 30 million, as that is the number of households who’ll earn over Rs. 0.2 million/year in the 2010 timeframe. There is also a qualitative aspect that I’d like to emphasize. I read a quote from an average-Joe in the US who said ‘I pay $15/month for internet. That’s pocket change! I don’t even think about it”. Indian middle class needs to feel this way about using the internet (we’ve already reached this in how we view cable TV, which has penetrated 60 million households). Then, we’ll be in a mode where people discover the power of the net, as opposed to using it in a limited way for point-applications (email, sporadic travel bookings and job searches).

There is no shortage of compelling content/applications (travel, stock-trading, jobs, shopping sites have been around), though regional language content can still be strengthened. In my view, access is the main bottleneck. Drawing lessons from two notable Indian success stories – cable TV and cellphones – here’s what I’d like to see over the next 1-2 years in the internet access space:

  • Far higher competition: Currently cable-operators and PSU telcos dominate the last mile. Frankly, both of these suck big-time! The former are controlled by political parties and local goons. The latter’s crappy service is a turn-off. We need the equivalent of Bharti and Reliance – national players with deep pockets and a sharp focus on growing the market. These players are so busy with the booming cellphone business that they haven’t devoted adequate focus to growing their data services. I don’t blame them, but am hoping this will change once the government forces sharing of last-mile copper by PSUs and wireless profit growth slows. I am all for violent competition between cable TV, satellite TV, fixed line incumbents, ISPs and wireless operators.
  • Multiple access technologies: Think of what CDMA did to GSM (ignore the regulatory back-door entry part). I am bullish on Wimax, as that can break the last-mile gridlock. However, I expect initial versions of Wimax to be too expensive to meet Indian price points. I look forward to innovative companies that can come up with desi Wimax technologies and business models.
  • Shift in mindset from PC-price to entry-cost & monthly charges: There’s been a lot of noise on the Rs. 10,000 PC. That’s a good thing, but the more realistic price for a PC with decent functionality remains over Rs. 20,000. Simple sum-of-parts math (think monitor, windows) will make sure PC price doesn’t fall fast enough. Alternate configurations & access devices appear too niche and hard-to-use. Instead, what we need is a mindset and marketing change, to ‘pay Rs. 1000 unfront, and Rs. 500/month for PC + internet’. Loans and EMI-payments for PCs exist even today, but aren’t yet packaged and marketed the way wireless companies say ‘lifetime prepaid phone for Rs. 999’. I realize that the math still needs to add up, but people will be creative if the market is large enough.
  • PCs in education: Middle class parents will buy a PC, if they think their kid’s life prospects will improve because of this. This hasn’t gained scale yet, as most schools don’t have the notion PCs and internet being integral to learning and class projects. Computer training gains focus only in college, that too in the parallel universe of training institutes. Maybe, the industry body and government agencies can play a role in educating our educators. Once the PC enters the home (using education as an excuse), both kids and parents will explore and discover new applications (including some not-so-clean ones!).
Once home-internet-access is fixed, usage should follow. Our growth trajectory will still be different from the West, due to low cost of intermediation (cheap labour) and a lack of a self-service culture (where else do you have attendants manning vending machines!). But, who knows! Here’s a question I’d like your views on. Who will be the first Indian internet company to reach $100 million in revenue? And please don’t tell me ‘Indian Railways’!

139 Comments:

At 3:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interesting question as to which Indian company will be first to reach $100MM rev. Among the current crop, IndiaTimes is leading the pack with $30MM+. However, I think none of the existing players (IndiaTimes and Rediff included, despite having big VCs and public markets behind) will be able to reach $100MM (net rev not gross rev as in the case of AirDeccan). Reason? Limited, unimaginative or poor offerings (experience, products, service). A new breed of company, perhaps not even formed yet, providing global experience with local understanding & flavor will be the first to $100MM finish line.

 
At 3:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It is amazing that 64kbps is marketed as broadband...call it ignorance or lack of choice (quite analogous to a national english daily this past weekend listing "Honda Accord" among the top 10 cool/sexy items to impress others!

 
At 12:06 AM, Blogger Ravi Purohit said...

Sir,

Like it or not. I think it will indeed be the good old Indian Railways. Come to think of it, it not only saves you time but also delivers the tickets at your doorstep is superquick time (and this is no exaggeration). A few years back in my house, the young kids used to be the scapegoats to get those reservations, either from Bombay Central, Borivali or Churchgate. Ofcourse, there was always an option of getting it from the travel agent.

But now, the dear www.irctc.co.in delivers rail tickets at your doorstep within 24 hours of booking. Plus, if you book multiple tickets it costs even less than getting the same done via the travel agent.

Another biz that may reach the much 'revered' USD 100 mln mark is the US version of Amazon in India, especially if second/first hand books starting getting bought/sold on the net. My friends (including office colleagues) and I struggle to get our hands on many of the finance /economics books. Reasons - a).They are either not available in the local bookshops b).they are available but are exorbitantly expensive.

Solution - We ask our friends residing in the US to buy us these from Amazon.com at dirt cheap rates (we get most of them for btwn USD 2-20 range). Ofcourse these are the used ones, but what the hell. We get 4-5 decent books for less than Rs.2,000. By the way, they are not shipped to us, but are carried by friends coming to India for a while.

Ofcourse, the company may not make USD 100 million only on books, but i think that could be great beginning.

The third and possibly the most likely business that WILL earn over USD 100 million in revenues from the net would be 'Internet Trading'. This is one area that is booming like one hell. Infact it is growing faster than the cellular biz.

 
At 3:26 AM, Blogger Amol Karve said...

Hi Anand, my path to your blog: Opportunity with BVP - BVP website - Profiles.

Agree with a lot of the points you raised in this post. Couple of comments -

I wondered (hence this response) was if lack of home PC penetration creates a desi Michael Dell to negotiate with Intel and Windows and sells for sub 10K.

I can conjure a PCO today ==> Home/ Cell phone tomm analogy for Cyber Cafe today ==> Home PC tomm. School habits will definitely push this as well.

Dont know if the instalment culture for PCs has legs to stand on, I think we have too many things on instalments already - homes, cars and consumer durables are already exploding. IMHO your point will stand only if PCs are regarded as "necessities".

 
At 10:26 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

MTNL's broadband service is apparently becoming very popular @Rs 200 pm. In fact, i tried getting a connection and they said i would have to wait for 4-6 mths since they have a long waiting list. so, the tipping point may be coming in faster that u anticipated.

 
At 1:40 PM, Blogger vinu said...

hey, even I was there - yet to blog on it though! I see IITM and I guess you are in bombay? may be we should meet. even I am from IITM, Just returned to India after my masters at Cal and brief working stint in the bay area for 6 months

 
At 1:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anand,

Im not sure i agree with all your comments in this post -

1. I have an all you can eat cable connection from a sify franchisee (cable is probably the wrong term- they just string ethernet to my house from their pop - no coax/cable modem involved). It is a hundred times better than the Bharti or Dishnet DSL connection i was on in Chennai,Delhi and the response/resolution to downtime or any problems in my computer at home are also fantastic....

Granted, i struggled with another cable operators connection for ages before this came about but that was only because my family ( my mother included) spent a good 4 hours on the net in a day and complained more about outages than anybody else in the colony.

I think the cable operator route ( franchisees of big providers like Sify,Bharti) is the only way to get successful rollout of the last mile on an affordable basis. -

while the customer gets better service , the company gets better collections on a post paid connection. Telecom operators still sweat their collection problems - i.e. of the 20-30% who are actually on post paid.

 
At 2:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

In response to your question -

None of the pure play internet companies will hit 100$ mm before a company with a dual play on mobiles and the internet - indiatimes needs to push the mobile agenda more - focus more on smart distribution techniques and think outside the box of advertising offerings in newspapers - archaic method of generating awareness.

 
At 12:26 PM, Anonymous Abhishek said...

Excellent incisive post here. You have hit the nail on the head about the stagnating PC sales and the cable operators.

Bharti and Reliance need to girdle up and step up their investments; in my opinion they are both lacking in either scaling up content or providing Internet access.

 
At 1:01 PM, Blogger Mukul Kumar said...

Hi Anand,

This article is really insightful. Thanks for posting the data.

I have a comment:
You said "PC with decent functionality remains over Rs. 20,000. Simple sum-of-parts math (think monitor, windows)"

I think most of the Windows software owned by households are pirated (close to 80%). My theory is that the low-cost-PC penetration is happening only with pirated Windows. Think about it XP costs 8K and Office costs 13K, that totals 21K (INR) already. I don't think any household is paying for Windows.

 
At 7:37 AM, Anonymous appa said...

Great post Anand! The only quibble I have is: I think that PCs are making an impact in schooling. Last year, in a remote village in Arunachal Pradesh a 12 year old told me about the PC in his school. In Assam, when I spoke to many middle-class families, their top reason for wanting a computer was so their children could do better at computers at school.

Two points of yours that I completely agree with: better packaging of the financing options & regional language content will influence growth significantly.

My opinion on the first company that'll reach $100Mn? Cricinfo.com :)

 
At 9:46 AM, Blogger Anand said...

Where is the compelling content for the averagte Indian internet user? I agree that there are travel and job sites etc. But people dont goto these everyday (unless, someone happens to be searching for a job or planning a vacation).

Lack of indigenous content leads to the lack of value in getting a PC/internet connection. This ultimately leads to lower PC/internet penetration.

People would rather goto a cyber cafe during evening hours to send mails or do a random chat. They wouldnt quite want to invest in a PC and then incur the recurring monthly cost of a broadband connection.

 
At 3:02 PM, Blogger Anurag Gupta said...

Hi Anand

Excellent post, I agree with your take that what India needs is more people accessing Internet from their homes.

However, I am sure that there will be lots of players who will give varied technology offerings at reasonable rates for access. Wi-max, CDMA, DSL, Cable ... whatever the tech offering, the key is to provide a comp with internet connectivity at sub 500 Rs EMI / month !

The other trigger for people to get connected to Interent will be newer offerings from players. I know of a lot of people who are buying computers with Internet access as it is required by their children to do their school projects / assignments.. similarly this can extend for other compelling service propositions like all airline bookings / deals , internet banking, stock broking, tax returns etc.

Also one key point I feel will be regional launguage content and offerings. I think that will be key for aggregating larger numbers of Internet users.

Keep the posts coming in.


Cheers

Anurag Gupta
http://anuraggupta.blogspot.com

 
At 12:33 PM, Anonymous Rich Thoma said...

Who would buy 10 Giga Wireless Links to deploy Real Broadband??
Essel Group ?? For Ku Band Sat IP distribution.

richthoma@gmail USA

 
At 1:37 AM, Anonymous AG said...

> first to reach $100MM rev

My bet: one of the marriage portals (Shaadi.com seems the leading candidate) after some consolidation. I have heard even total techno-illiterate moms talk about this site and its benefits.

;-)

Arun

 
At 6:30 PM, Blogger Vikash Mantri said...

What are the internet connections of MTNL in Delhi and Mumbai? 1.1 mn was the number from the latest financials. If MTNL owns 20% of teh market there are a 5mn users in Delhi and Mumbai alone.

What are MTNLs broadband onnections again - 157k and growing at the 500 a day. yes it is true most of internet users in india are the typical chat and mail users - but theri size is decent. I think it is teh lack of content which fails to excite teh internet users to convert into Broadband.

i guess every middel calls household is a target which reguklarly and cannot think of missing the evening sops on Tv. As they are going to soon get a choice of pause and play their favourite sops at their own times.
Wait and watch for teh triple play to come in - voice, video, internet and see the growth happening.
While last time the growth was through the disruptive technology of Cdma this time it is going to be content. Content and broadband are a chicken and egg story. So look out for companies investing in Broadband content.

 
At 3:41 PM, Anonymous Rajan said...

Hi,

You have got me hooked to your blog. Infact i read the entire blog in one day right from the very first article and I couldnt agree with your views more.

Read the latest business world issue...awaiting ur comments if any

cheers :)

 
At 5:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

There is a lot of talk about lack of broadband/connectivity. However, there is a lot of it in the office. People are accessing the internet from work. This brings the no. of people online in the 40M+ range.

What is not measured in India is the large no of non-Indian sites being accessed, such as Gmail, Wikipedia, Blogger, etc.

To answer your question on the $100M + Internet company, it may be Google or Yahoo, as measured by the chunk of media they are displaying to Indian eyeballs. Now only if Indian advertizers started buying those spots instead.

 
At 5:38 PM, Anonymous Hiren said...

Wonder how the blogging scene will evolve cosidering a search engine like technorati showing only some 800 Indian blogs which considering the size of the Indian population and that of Indian Diaspora is miniscule.

Very informative and comprehensive write-up. Hope that India goes from strength to strength.

 
At 5:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Next Seriously clueless post - still waiting

 
At 8:01 PM, Anonymous Ravi Venkatraman said...

Hi Anand,

Excellent post.
Looks like companies are trying to implement your suggestions of
‘pay Rs. 1000 unfront, and Rs. 500/month for PC + internet’.
(HCL & BSNL have teamed to implement the same)
http://www.financialexpress.com/latest_full_story.php?content_id=118506

My View/Prediction on
Who will be the first Indian internet company to reach $100 million in revenue?
(excludes ebay, yahoo, google etc..)

Company with eClassifieds Offering. Mainly dealing with Real Estate, Jobs and High end consumer products.
It would take 2-3 years for the online real estate sites to define the Brokerage/commision structure
and will have to supported by Brick/Motor backoffice.

Times Internet/Indiatimes
InfoEdge (Naukri, 99acres, ...)
BharatMatrimony (IndiaProperty, ClickJobs etc..)
Sulekha

Would be the leading contenders.

Cheers,

Ravi Venkatraman
eClickSmart Inc
http://www.ApnaGuide.com

 
At 8:35 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Regularly read your blog and get some useful information from it. Looks like it has been a while since you updated it. I would love to hear your experiences as you grew to be a VC at Bessemmer. Do you travel to Bangalore often?

 
At 7:59 PM, Blogger Sriganesh R said...

Dear Anand,

I am Ganesh, Account Manager, 20:20 MEDIA, India's leading PR agency.

I would like to get in touch with you, can you please share your email id with me?

Regards
Ganesh

 
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At 6:42 PM, Blogger Rahul Singh said...


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At 2:15 PM, Anonymous Silver Jackpot Call said...

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