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India, private equity and more ...

Sunday, October 30, 2005

Execution

As reinforced by the recent Knowledge@Wharton article on Warburg Pincus, most private equity investors in India have focused on later-stage investments in mature industries. Over 80% of the $3-odd billion invested in India over the last 3 years are in late-stage companies. 90% of investments have been in fairly mature industries, such as construction, financial services, hotels, manufacturing, pharma, healthcare, IT/BPO and energy.

At first glance, this seems quite simple and low-risk. We know there is strong demand. The products and services are standard. There is no technology risk or long product development cycle. All that is needed is for the company to execute to plan. That’s where is gets complicated. Execution isn’t as simple as it looks on paper (or powerpoint). In fact, the only thing that differentiates between companies in India is strong execution.

Let’s take the Bharti example. At the time Warburg invested, Bharti was one of a dozen emerging telcos, that each had a circle or two. Without the benefit of hindsight, all these companies looked more or less alike. All of them had access to the same network equipment, billing software, vendors, consultants, you-name-it. They all hired from the same pool of ex-FMCG managers to handle sales, distribution and marketing. While not all of them raised $ 600 million, access to capital wasn’t an issue either as everyone was affiliated to one business group or another. Today, Bharti’s a clear market leader, while several of the others don’t even exist anymore. Bharti has done the same things all telcos did – roll-out network, get the best price/service from vendors, market services, take care of bad debts, handle customer complaints etc. Only, they’ve done each of these just a little bit better and more consistently. It’s been plain, old-fashioned execution and managerial ability. The same story repeats itself as you look at companies such as HDFC Bank, Infosys or Bharat Forge.

As an investor in India, the single most important parameter to assess is the company’s execution ability. This ties in directly to the emphasis on later stage investments, as the only way to ascertain this is to actually see it in action. The main question is how long must one wait to figure out if this is a company that can execute its way to becoming a market leader?

To answer this question, let me take a specific sector – retail – as an illustration. I break up any retailer’s evolution into two phases – a trial & error phase, followed by an expansion phase. The first phase is where one figures out the right business model specific to the Indian context. This is an iterative process that can take several years. FoodWorld was the first organized retailer in India, starting in my hometown – Madras. They toiled many years with the supermarket format, before finally figuring out that this format doesn’t work and have now shifted focus to a big-box hypermarket format. The coffee chain Barista has gone through three owners and as many CEOs, in trying to figure out its positioning and pricing. Many others are grappling with choices to be made on store formats, size, own-vs-franchise etc. Once the right model is established, it’s a question of scaling up by rolling out a proven model across cities, regions and more stores. The most optimal approach is to stay small and preferably stick to one city/region in the first phase. This limits the amount of capital being expended on the ‘error’ part of trial & error. Besides getting the model right, this phase also demonstrates the ability of the core team to pull this off.

For an investor, the best risk-reward is to invest after the first phase, in a proven business model and team that can then expand significantly with access to capital. In predominantly execution-driven businesses (as opposed to those based on IP or innovation), I’d rather not invest early. This execution thing is way harder than it looks!

Here’s some food for thought. Warburg made about 6 times their investment in Bharti over approximately six years. If you or I had bought Bharti stock in 2002, we’d have made over 10 times our money in 3 years. Better late than early?

87 Comments:

At 3:23 AM, Blogger Roshan said...

Hi Anand,

Interesting post and views. I've been doing investments on a purely personal basis and here are some of my thoughts. What you're suggesting - The warburg model' lets say would only work if the firm was the only provider of late stage capital in a target vertical or geography. Essentially Warburg's risk was not with Bharti but with the regulatory environment in India. Why do I say this?

1. Later stage deals are really well priced. It's difficult to get a bargain and the providers of capital are many and plentiful. The provider of capital also in my opinion really is rarely expected to add value.
2. India today is becoming a mainstream investment destination. Any good deal is well shopped around and there are at least 10-15 large funds competing along with the Private Equity / Capital market sort of players.

My experience with earlier stage deals is better:-
1. The expertise required to price and appreciate a good deal is lacking. Most VCs dont know what a good deal is and so a smarter technology investor who knows his stuff is able to outperform the investment bankers regularly.
2. Dealflow. Every investors who has been consistent in the market has proprietary deal flow which does not go to others. This could be through relationships with universities, R&D arms or corporates etc.
3. Smart Entrepreneurs are willing to give a smart VC who they respect a better deal as opposed to a shit head. Most deals dont break because of price.

My take - India needs early stage capital today. The market is large and is ideal for an investor who can cherry pick the companies who he can back. I see no reason to sacrifice returns and join the crowd.

 
At 10:23 AM, Blogger Anand Sridharan said...

Roshan: All valid points. Three comments -
1. Distinguish between Silicon Valley style tech start-ups (innovation) and India-style non-tech companies (execution). What you say holds in the former. In the latter, risk-reward favours later stage investing.
2. Define 'late-stage'. At the end of the 'trial & error' phase that I mention, we are talking of companies that are $5-$50 million in size. At this size range, this is still an imperfect market. Some elements that you mention around price arbitrage, proprietary deal flow and relevance of investor value-add still hold. I am not talking of investing in companies that are 100s of million$ in size
3. Where is the actual investment opportunity, specific to the Indian market? Non-tech, growth capital opportunities outnumber tech, venture capital opportunities by an order of magnitude. Possibly even higher, if you apply a quality filter. Indian IP/tech startup scene is fast improving, but is still a few years away from critical mass.

So, what am I saying. There is a 'sweet spot' in not-so-large companies requiring expansion capital to scale up a proven business model in non-tech sectors. As of now, this spot is sweeter than early-stage tech.
Having said all of this, I agree with you that this market is getting more competitive and efficient. The sensex being at 8000+ doesnt help either. The main challenge is for investors to demonstrate value-add across a range of such sectors.

 
At 11:34 AM, Blogger Roshan said...

Valid points for sure Anand. I dont dispute that there is money to be made presently in the 'sweet spot'.

I just feel there is more money to be made in the long run by building a very traditional Silicon Valley-ish Venture Capital firm investing in india.

 
At 1:14 AM, Blogger Ananth said...

Hi Anand,

Just stumbled upon your blog. This is the first Indian VC blog I have come across.

Quote:"As an investor in India, the single most important parameter to assess is the company’s execution ability":Unquote
The "Execution" post seems to have shades of the chicken and egg conundrum - 'Late Stage - Execution matters most - Late stage'

I am a bit surprised to hear that the company's execution ability is what matters most! Given that the talent pool from where people are picked is the same, maybe its the people who have been picked that have made the difference.

Ananth

 
At 3:40 AM, Blogger Ananth said...

Hi,

I was reading an interview of Michael Dell and Kevin Rollins here and your point on Execution seems to be sinking inside me!

Ananth
http://vcinthemakin.blogspot.com

 
At 12:03 PM, Blogger Krish said...

I enjoyed Anand's post and Roshan's comment.

Indeed execution matters most and ranks high in any investor's reckoning - even at the risk of higher valuation and lesser bargain. But that argument as the basis for late stage preference has almost become a cliche in PE circles.

The trouble is when the smart entrepreneur endowed with execution skills also knows how to flash multiple term sheets and wring every last cent out of PE investors - that too when market is at or near its historical peak.

Risk / reward - PE investor will have to wait for the indices to achieve yet another historical peak to make a decent exit. This often is a scary prospect - Look at the investors who entered when our SENSEX was around 12000 ( to get a 20% IRR assuming he had invested in a 1 beta stock, he has to wait for Sensex to touch 14400...well...daunting enough.)

Bottomline : There's no one size (stage) fits all.

Be it Silicon Valley or emerging markets, the key differentiator between a good investment and a great investment shall always be investor's judgement skills based on individual risk appettite and unique decision variables material to the relevant ecosystem. Look around and define your own methods. That plurality of millions of mindsets at work is what makes the market find its own exciting logic (defying every pundit and his uncle), isn't it ?

Thanks

 
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